Weather

County,
Hydrologic Outlook issued March 03 at 2:51PM CST by NWS
Effective: 2:51 p.m. on Thursday, March 3, 2016
Expires: 6 p.m. on Saturday, March 5, 2016

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...ABOVE NORMAL SPRING FLOOD RISK FOR THE MID-SOUTH...
A WET WEATHER PATTERN IS SET UP THIS SPRING FOR THE MID_SOUTH. BEST
PROJECTIONS OF RAIN MARCH THROUGH MAY CALL FOR 3 TO 9 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS RAIN WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL FLOODS ON
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, TENNESSEE RIVER, AND ALL OTHER LOCAL RIVERS
AND STREAMS IN THE MID-SOUTH.
...CURRENTLY...
CURRENTLY, THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS NEAR FLOODING OR IS
FLOODING FROM NEW MADRID SOUTH PAST HELENA. CAIRO JUST CRESTED, AND
THIS MINOR FLOOD CREST ON THE MISSISSIPPI WILL FLOAT DOWN PAST
HELENA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SAVANNAH ON THE TENNESSEE RIVER
IS IN FLOOD ADVISORY STATUS. THE HATCHIE RIVER IS ALSO IN ADVISORY
STATUS IN WEST TENNESSEE.
SOIL MOISTURE IS HIGH IN THE MID-SOUTH AND IN THE BASINS UPSTREAM
FROM CAIRO. RUNOFF WILL BE MUCH HIGHER BECAUSE WET SOIL.
...SHORT TERM RISK...
SHORT TERM SPRING FLOOD RISK IS VERY HIGH. WATCH FOR A MAYA
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO BRING A VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...MAINLY IN THE MARCH 7 TO MARCH 12 TIME FRAME. MANY EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND BOOTHEEL LOCATIONS WILL POSSIBLY GET OVER 6 TO 8
INCHES.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A RECURRING PROBLEM DURING THE EVENT. THEN,
ALL THIS RAIN WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY INT0 MAJOR FLOODING OF THE
L`ANGUILLE AND ST FRANCIS RIVERS AND MAJOR DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE
BOOTHEEL. EXPECT LARGE AREAS OF BASINS NORTH OF THE HUXTABLE PUMPING
PLANT TO BE FLOODED. EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH ARE MORE APT
TO GET 3 TO 5 INCH TOTALS WHICH BRINGS FLASH FLOODS AND MAJOR
FLOODING OF TRIBUTARIES.
THIS RAIN WILL BRING AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS OR GREATER
COULD BE REACHED ALL THE WAY DOWN PAST HELENA, ARKANSAS.
SAVANNAH AND PERRYVILLE ON THE TENNESSEE RIVER COULD RISE BACK UP TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
...LONGER TERM SPRING FLOOD RISK (BEYOND MID APRIL TO THE END OF
MAY)...
THE REST OF SPRING WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY COOLING
PACIFIC OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EQUATOR. COOLING OCEAN
TEMPERATURES TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN TEMPERATURES USUALLY BRINGS WET
SPRINGS. CLIMATE RECORDS SUGGEST ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN IS
FAVORED. THIS COULD RAISE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UP ABOVE MODERATE
FLOOD FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
TRIBUTARIES WILL SHOOT UP EVERY TIME STORMS COME THROUGH, OF COURSE.
THE PROBABILITY OF BOTTOMLAND FLOODING WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
INTO EARLY JUNE.

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